Key Takeaways
Oil prices started strong at $61/b in January 2020 as Iran-US conflict;
Prices plummeted in the second quarter, with one day in April even closing at negative $37/b, due to the COVID-19 pandemic spread, negative outlook for global economic growth and demand for oil.
However, in an instant, crude oil has experienced the sharpest rebound in history. On June 8, it rose to $40/barrel, bounce more than 70%.
WTI: UPSIDE MOMENTUM TOWARD TO 50-60$ BY THE END OF 2020
Four Reasons for Today’s Volatile Oil Prices
1 Supply and demand determine the price of oil. The current supply of crude oil is OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United States. So pay much attention to OPEC Conference and the economic restart plans of various countries.
2 The cost factor cannot be ignored,
3 The U.S. dollar and U.S. economic expectations
4 Uncertain factors, U.S.-China relations, the trend of COVID-19 pandemic, and the U.S. election.
WTI ARE EXPECTED TO BE $50-$60 IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2020
EXPECTED INCREASING GLOBAL DEMAND
The global economy will gradually recover with the restart of European and American countries' economies and the economic stimulus plans of various countries.
The demand for oil is expected to rise, and Promote a further rebound in oil prices.
FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF COST
The current global upstream cost of oil and gas is about US $25, and the reasonable oil price in the future should be US$50~60.
From the short and medium-term(1-5 years), this can form the basis of oil prices. In the long run, costs and prices will continue to rise.

However, There is some black swan theory:

The Covid-19 crisis have worsened and various suspended to restart the economy.

Tensions between China and the United States have led to a decline in economic growth expectations in China and U.S.

Using history as a mirror, a review of several oil price plunges in history.
1998 2001 2008 2014 - 2016 2018
1998: The most significant drop of 61%.
(Asian financial crisis led to a slowdown in global economic growth and a sharp drop in oil demand).

Reasons for the rally in oil price: OPEC cut production twice; the global economy rebounded.
The later trend: By the end of 1999, crude oil prices returned to their pre-decline heights.